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Artificial Intelligence and Productivity in Europe Florian Misch, Ben Park, Carlo Pizzinelli, and Galen Sher The debate on artificial intelligence (AI) often focuses on its impact on productivity, but data for Europe remains scarce. The authors of this paper bring together many scenarios by compiling evidence on which tasks will be automatable in the short term and attempting to predict the adoption of AI across Europe, taking into account regulations that limit the use of AI. They conclude that, although medium-term productivity gains for Europe as a whole seem likely to remain modest, they will vary greatly across sectors and countries – with higher-income ones potentially benefiting the most.

Other Top Downloads

The Labor Market Effect of Generative Artificial Intelligence on Artists Christos Makridis Younger Firms and CEOs Allow More Work from Home Cevat Giray Aksoy, Jose Maria Barrero, Nicholas Bloom, Katelyn Cranney, Steven J. Davis, Mathias Dolls, and Pablo Zarate From Moderates to Extremes: How Immigration Polarizes American Politics Johannes Matzat, Axel Dreher, Sarah Langlotz, Christopher Parsons The Economics of Architecture Gabriel Ahlfeldt, Elisabetta Pietrostefani, Ailin Zhang → Other CESifo Working Papers → Working Paper Submission Form

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Media Appearances

Work from Home and Fertility Cevat Giray Aksoy, Jose Maria Barrero, Nicholas Bloom, Katelyn Cranney, Steven J. Davis, Mathias Dolls, and Pablo Zarate Could working from home solve the global fertility crisis? The authors of this recent working paper asked themselves this question in a research study. The Financial Times wrote about it here, take a look.

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Business Climate Rebounds in Early 2026   In February, the German economy showed tentative signs of recovery, with the ifo Business Climate Index rising to 88.6 from 87.6 in January. Firms report an improvement in the current situation and generally positive expectations, with the manufacturing, services, and construction sectors recording positive trends and better assessments. However, the index does not yet reflect the outbreak of the conflict between the United States and Iran and its impact on energy costs.

Other Indicators

German Export Expectations Rise (February 2026)

Shortage of Skilled Workers Decreasing in Germany (February 2026)

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Upcoming Events

Munich Economic Debate: “Robotics for Demographic Change – Can Technology Help Ease the Burden on Younger and Older Generations in the Future?” by Alexander König Chamber of Industry and Commerce for Munich and Upper Bavaria, Munich 23 March 2026 | 18:00 – 19:30 CET/CEST Robots are often seen as a beacon of hope for two of Europe’s most pressing challenges: an aging society with growing care needs and an increasing shortage of skilled workers. Yet despite high expectations, the use of robotics in everyday life remains limited. What role can robotics play in an aging society? And what is needed to turn technological visions into real societal benefits? Alexander König, professor of Robotics and Assistive Systems at the Technical University of Munich, will discuss robotics as a potential tool to address labor shortages across various sectors with a focus on care and assistive robotics. The lecture will be held in German and livestreamed.

Richard Musgrave Lecture: “Measuring the Welfare Impacts of Government Policies” by Nathaniel Hendren CESifo & International Institute of Public Finance (IIPF), Munich 15 April 2026 18:00 – 20:00 CET/CEST The Richard Musgrave Visiting Professorship 2026 has been awarded to Nathaniel Hendren by CESifo and the International Institute of Public Finance (IIPF). In his address, Professor Hendren will talk about Measuring the Welfare Impacts of Government Policies. The laudation will be delivered by James R. Hines (University of Michigan). Proceedings will be livestreamed.

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Upcoming Conferences and Workshops

Junior Workshop on the Economics of Education CESifo, Munich | 30 – 31 March 2026   Scientific organizers: Ludger Woessmann, Caterina Pavese, and Maddalena Totarelli (ifo Institute). Keynote speaker: Michela Carlana (Harvard Kennedy School).

Area Conference on Public Economics CESifo, Munich | 15 – 17 April 2026   Scientific organizers: Claus Thustrup Kreiner (University of Copenhagen). Keynote speaker: Joel Slemrod (University of Michigan).

Junior Workshop on Energy and Climate Economics CESifo, Munich | 23 April 2026   Scientific organizers: Maximilian Auffhammer (University of California, Berkeley) and Karen Pittel (ifo Institute).

Area Conference Energy and Climate Economics CESifo, Munich | 24 – 25 April 2026   Scientific organizer: Maximilian Auffhammer (University of California, Berkeley). Keynote speaker: Carolyn Fischer (World Bank and RFF).

Area Conference on Global Economy CESifo, Munich | 22 – 23 May 2026   Scientific organizer: Peter Egger (ETH Zurich). Keynote speakers: Meredith Crowley (University of Cambridge) and Felix Tintelnot (Duke University).

Junior Workshop on Labor Economics CESifo, Munich | 28 May 2026   Scientific organizers: Pia Heckl, Giuseppe Di Giacomo, Luca Perdoni (ifo Institute), and Gordon Dahl (University of California, San Diego).

Area Conference on Labor Economics Munich 29 – 30 May 2026   Scientific organizers: Gordon Dahl (UC San Diego), Helmut Rainer (ifo Institute) Keynote speakers: Martha Bailey (University of California, Los Angeles).

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Call for Papers

9th Doctoral Workshop on the Economics of Digitization Telecom Paris | 15 – 16 June 2026   Submission deadline: 30 March 2026.

Workshop on Digital Platforms: Methods, Policy and Politics University of Warwick (UK) | 19 – 20 June 2026   Submission deadline: 31 March 2026.

Junior Workshop on International Economics CESifo, Munich | 17 – 18 July 2026   Submission deadline: 13 April 2026.

Area Conference on Economics of Education CESifo, Munich | 11 – 12 September 2026   Submission deadline: 11 May 2026.

Area Conference on Behavioral Economics CESifo, Munich | 23 – 24 October 2026   Submission deadline: 21 June 2026.

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Highlights from Past Events

Munich Economic Debate: “AI and Startup Fever – How Young and Older Generations are Seizing Europe’s Technology Opportunities” by Annika von Mutius Munich | 2 February 2026 In 2022, Annika von Mutius turned her back on Silicon Valley to found an AI company in Berlin – as a European. A step that was not an obvious one: a war on Europe’s doorstep, stagnating growth, and dependence on US and Chinese technologies shape the picture on the old continent. However, this is precisely the environment in which new opportunities are opening up. Young technology companies can make a decisive contribution to the economic and technological future of Europe – read: sovereignty. Watch Dr. von Mutius’ entire lecture here.

Munich Economic Debate: “How Do We Shape the World of Work for an Aging Workforce?” by Melanie Arntz Munich | 23 February 2026 Demographic change is strongly affecting the German labor market: workforces are aging, while many experienced baby boomers are retiring. What can motivate older employees to remain in the workforce longer – and what conditions do they need to do so? In her talk, Prof. Dr. Melanie Arntz, Vice Director of the Institute for Employment Research (IAB) and Professor at FAU Erlangen-Nuremberg, explained why older workers represent a still underestimated potential. Watch her entire lecture here.

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Breakfast Discussion at the MSC 2026: “Paving the Way for Tech Disruption – How to Rethink EU Industrial Policy” fancyrosi studio, Munich | 13 February 2026 The panel discussion organized by EconPol Europe at the 2026 Munich Security Conference was a great success. A heartfelt thank you to all who participated in the debate! The discussion centered on European industrial strategy and the steps Europe must take to achieve technological sovereignty. To accomplish this, policymakers must establish long-term goals that target societal needs while preventing wasteful public spending through efficiency assessments. Success also hinges on regulatory credibility of EU frameworks and – above all – greater deployment of venture capital to help startups bring innovations to market. Part of the discussion focused on the EU Chips Act as an example of EU measure lacking a truly European dimension: While it was meant to strengthen Europe’s role in the global semiconductor ecosystem, it essentially allowed some large member states to support their national champions. A recent EconPol Opinion, published in conjunction with the event, explains this in detail. Read it here.

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EconPol Forum 01/2026

Policy Debate of the Hour   Industrial policy is also the subject of the latest issue of EconPol Forum. Driven by the technological revolutions of the past years, industrial policy is entering a new era globally. Contributions to the Policy Debate of the Hour provide an overview and examine the implications for Europe. The New Era of Industrial Policy: Evidence and Implications Navigating Industrial Policy Europe’s Strategic Imperative: Industrial Policy for Technological Sovereignty A European Niche Strategy in the Global Chips War Self-Sustaining or Sustaining Cooperation? How Europe Can Ensure Access to Semi-conductor Technologies More Chips, Anyone? Demand for Semiconductors in an Era of Active Industrial Policy

Economic Policy and Its Impact The Inheritance Taxation in Europe: Long-Term Developments and Some Empirical Findings While relatively efficient, inheritance taxes face design challenges. Strengthening enforcement, closing loopholes, and improving public understanding are key to unlocking their potential for revenue and redistribution within a broader policy mix.

Institutions Across the World Culture, Patience, and Lifelong Learning: How Institutional Design Can Support Continued Education As pointed out by Melanie Arntz in her MED lecture, lifelong learning is essential for long-term economic development. Willingness to engage in continuous learning is also shaped by cultural traits, but the right institutional incentives can compensate for this.

Big-Data-Based Economic Insights Beyond Surveys: How Alternative Data Can Measure the Health of the Labor Market Public stats are typically the primary source of labor market data. However, a widely digitized labor market can provide the data – online job profiles and postings – to offer policymakers, investors, and the public a reliable alternative or simply a benchmark.

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Latest Policy Briefs

The Effectiveness of EU Export Bans on Military Goods Despite the military export bans imposed on Russia, weapons recovered on the battlefield often contain Western components. This recent study analyzes data on EU exports of military-related goods to determine how these are still finding their way to Russia.

The Role of the Strait of Hormuz for Germany and the EU The stock market dynamics of the past few days reflect growing concerns about a total and prolonged blockade of the Strait of Hormuz in the context of the Gulf conflict. This Policy Brief sets out the risks for Europe based on data – especially in terms of inflation.

Fiscal Drag in Europe – Key Facts …and inflation does not only mean higher prices, it can also mean higher taxes. This new study examines how 21 EU countries have sought to curb fiscal drag, namely the erosion of real wages as a result of higher nominal wages, fiscal progressivity, and the declining value of credits and deductions.

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Guests

Each month, CESifo and CES host guest researchers from different parts of the world.

Ulrich J. Wagner, University of Mannheim, is visiting CESifo 8 – 14 Mar 2026 Lavinia Kinne, German Institute for Economic Research (DIW Berlin), is visiting CESifo 9 – 13 Mar 2026 Ning Zhang, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, is visiting CESifo 16 – 20 Mar 2026 Tomáš Jagelka, University of Bonn, is visiting CES 16 Mar - 17 Apr 2026 Jamie Hentall-MacCuish, HEC Paris, is visiting CESifo 23 – 27 Mar 2026 Effrosyni Adamopoulou, ZEW – Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research, is visiting CESifo 23 – 28 Mar 2026 Bart Golsteyn, University of Maastricht, is visiting CESifo 29 Mar – 3 Apr 2026 Selma Walther, University of Sussex, is visiting CESifo 30 Mar – 2 Apr 2026 Tim Ederer, Carnegie Mellon, Pittsburgh, is visiting CES 6 Apr - 15 May 2026 Gonzague Vannoorenberghe, Université Catholique de Louvain, is visiting CESifo 7 – 15 Apr 2026 Petr Janský, Charles University, is visiting CES 13 - 17 Apr 2026 Nathaniel Hendren, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, is visiting CESifo 13 – 17 Apr 2026 Giuseppe Bertola, Università degli Studi di Torino, is visiting CESifo 14 – 17 Apr 2026 Adam Lavecchia, McMaster University, is visiting CESifo 19 – 23 Apr 2026 Carolyn Fischer, World Bank, is visiting CESifo 20 – 26 April 2026 Tristan Kohl, University of Groningen, is visiting CESifo 20 – 24 Apr 2026 Béatrice Boulu-Reshef, CY Cergy Paris Université, is visiting CES 20 Apr - 1 May 2026 Ariell Reshef, Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne, is visiting CES 20 Apr - 1 May 2026 Mathieu Parenti, Paris School of Economics, is visiting CES 20 Apr - 3 May 2026 Giordano Mion, ESSEC Business School, is visiting CES 20 Apr - 29 May 2026 Alexander Ahammer, Johannes Kepler University Linz, is visiting CESifo 27 Apr – 1 May 2026 Flora Stiftinger, Johannes Kepler University Linz, is visiting CESifo 27 Apr – 1 May 2026 Sophie Bade, Royal Holloway, Univ. of London, is visiting CES 27 Apr - 15 May 2026 Christoph Luelfesmann, Simon Fraser University, is visiting CES 4 - 13 May 2026 Cees A. Withagen, VU University Amsterdam, is visiting CESifo 11 – 16 May 2026 Katy Bergstrom, Tulane University, is visiting CES 18 May - 12 Jun 2026 C. William Dodds, Tulane University, is visiting CES 18 May - 12 Jun 2026 Miguel Acosta, University of Wisconsin-Madison, is visiting CESifo 19 – 29 May 2026 Lydia Cox, University of Wisconsin-Madison, is visiting CESifo 19 – 29 May 2026

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The Bulletin Board is where CESifo network members can post news and messages regarding conferences, workshops and journals that are of interest to the research community and to all CESifo Newsletter readers. If you have anything you would like to share, please feel free to contact us at services@cesifo.de.

5th Workshop on Field Experiments in Economics and Business Technical University of Munich, Heilbronn Campus) | 7 – 8 September 2026 Keynote speakers: Peter Bergman (University of Texas at Austin) and Esther Duflo (MIT, University of Zurich). Submit your paper by May 15, 2026 (midnight CEST).

IEP Quarterly Magazine integration Institut für Europäische Politik Submit your paper by May 2026 for the 4/2026 issue.

Public Sector Economics 2026 Conference Institute of Public Finance, Zagreb (Croatia) | 23 October 2026 Keynote speakers: George Kopits (European Fiscal Board) and Imran Rasul (University College London).   Submit your paper by April 30, 2026.

Research and Essays: “Migration: Challenges, Changes, Chances” European Academy of Sciences and Arts, Salzburg (Austria)   Submit your abstract by April 1, 2026; Submit your paper by October 1.

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