CESifo Newsletter 01 | 2026
Most Read
Gender and Religion: A Survey
Sascha O. Becker, Jeanet Sinding Bentzen, and Chun Chee Kok

Why do women tend to be more religious than men? How does religion impact gender-related economic and social outcomes, such as gender norms, education, labor market participation, fertility, health, legal institutions and reforms, as well as discrimination? This paper summarizes findings from several studies attempting to answer these questions. Overall, the studies suggest that religious teachings and participation reinforce gender roles, while secular reforms or religious movements have altered these outcomes. However, the scarcity of empirical studies calls for further research in this field.
Other Top Downloads
Interviews
Elliott Ash, Soumitra Shukla, and Jason Sockin

The Economics of Climate Innovation: Technology, Climate Policy, and the Clean Energy Transition
Eugenie Dugoua and Jacob Moscona

Division of Labor in the Global Economy
Sascha O. Becker, Hartmut Egger, Michael Koch, and Marc-Andreas Muendler


How Global Are Local Value Chains?

Alessandro Borin, Francesco Paolo Conteduca, Fabrizio Leone, Michele Mancini, and Patrick Zoi
Pessimism Marks the End of 2025
 
German business sentiment has worsened again in December, as the ifo Business Climate Index fell to 87.6 points down from 88.0 in November. Companies are more pessimistic about early 2026, with expectations declining in manufacturing, services, and trade, accompanied by fewer new orders and planned production cuts. The restaurant sector was a notable exception. The year ended without optimism.
Other Indicators
Upcoming Munich Economic Debates 2026 Chamber of Industry and Commerce for Munich and Upper Bavaria, Munich
“AI and Startup Fever – How Young and Older Generations are Seizing Europe’s Technology Opportunities” by Annika von Mutius
2 February 2026 | 18:00 – 19:30


Young technology companies can make a decisive contribution to the economic and technological future of Europe. Annika von Mutius will show how entrepreneurial spirit, technological innovation, and cooperation between young and experienced generations can help successfully exploit Europe’s technology opportunities.

Moderator: Lisa Nienhaus (Süddeutsche Zeitung).

The lecture will be held in German and
livestreamed.
 
“How Do We Shape the World of Work for an Aging Workforce?” by Melanie Arntz
23 February 2026 | 18:00 – 19:30

Further information on this lecture will follow on our website.
Junior Workshop on the Economics of Education 2026
CESifo, Munich | 30 – 31 March 2026
 
Scientific organizers: Ludger Woessmann, Caterina Pavese, and Maddalena Totarelli (ifo Institute).

Keynote speaker: Michela Carlana (Harvard Kennedy School).
 
Area Conference on Public Economics 2026
CESifo, Munich | 15 – 17 April 2026
 
Scientific organizers: Claus Thustrup Kreiner (University of Copenhagen).

Keynote speaker: Joel Slemrod (University of Michigan).
 
Junior Workshop on Energy and Climate Economics 2026
CESifo, Munich | 23 April 2026
 
Scientific organizers: Maximilian Auffhammer (University of California, Berkeley) and Karen Pittel (ifo Institute).
 
Area Conference Energy and Climate Economics 2026
CESifo, Munich | 24 – 25 April 2026
 
Scientific organizer: Maximilian Auffhammer (University of California, Berkeley).

Keynote speaker: Carolyn Fischer (World Bank and RFF).
Area Conference on Labor Economics 2026 – Last chance to submit!
Munich 29 – 30 May 2026
 
Submission deadline: 15 January 2026 23:59 CET.
 
Junior Workshop on Labor Economics 2026 – Last chance to submit!
CESifo, Munich | 15 – 17 April 2026
 
Submission deadline: 15 January 2026 23:59 CET.
 
Area Conference on Global Economy 2026 – Last chance to submit!
CESifo, Munich | 22 – 23 May 2026
 
Submission deadline: 15 January 2026 23:59 CET.
 
Venice Summer Institute 2026 – Last chance to submit!
San Servolo, Venice (Italy) | 22 – 25 June 2026
 
Submission deadline: 18 January 2026.
 
CESifo Area Conference on Macro with Micro Data 2026
CESifo, Munich | 12 -13 June 2026
 
Submission deadline: 15 February 2026.
Highlights from Past Events
CES Munich Lectures in Economics 2025: “Expertise, Artificial Intelligence, and Work of the Future” by David Autor
LMU Munich | 18 November 2025

The rapid development of artificial intelligence (AI) is raising concerns about its potential impact on the job market. The prevailing fear is that AI will replace humans for a variety of tasks and jobs. But is this really the case? In his lecture, Professor David Autor explains why it is important to think of automation as an enhancement of human work rather than a mere replacement, and why our beliefs about the future of AI are really about human choices: How we will use this powerful tool is ultimately up to us.

Video recordings of the lecture are available
here.
 
Munich Economic Debate: “Short-Lived Boom or Sustainable Growth – Can Germany’s Economy Achieve a Turnaround in 2026?” by Clemens Fuest
Chamber of Industry and Commerce for Munich and Upper Bavaria, Munich | 8 December 2025

In the closing lecture of the Munich Economic Debates 2025, ifo President Clemens Fuest analyzed the state of the German economy. Gross domestic product is stagnating at its 2019 level, while private investment has returned to 2015 levels. Although substantial federal funds from the €500 billion special loan program will provide a short-term boost to the economy, prospects for sustained growth in the coming years will largely depend on the implementation of fundamental economic policy reforms.

Watch the entire lecture
here.
 
Workshop on Skills, Tasks and Technologies in the AI Era
CESifo, Munich | 19 – 20 November 2025

Held in conjunction with the CES Munich Lectures in Economics, the workshop was a great two days featuring numerous prominent speakers and providing plenty of opportunities to see excellent research in a field that shows no signs of slowing down.
 
CESifo-TransforM Workshop on the Economic and Societal Impacts of AI
CESifo, Munich | 5 – 6 December 2025

In a warm, pre-Christmas atmosphere, the two-day workshop, hosted by Oliver Falck, brought together researchers presenting more than 20 papers exploring AI from a wide range of perspectives. Tania Babina (University of Maryland) and Christina Gathmann (LISER) delivered the keynote lectures.

The 2026 edition of the workshop is planned for 3 – 4 December 2026, so be sure you don't miss it!
Policy Brief 79: The Economic Consequences of Tariffs and Trade Policy Uncertainty

The direct impact of tariffs has been widely discussed. Quantifying the toll of trade uncertainty on the European economy is more challenging. On average, respondents to the 2025 Q2 and Q3 Economic Experts Survey anticipate a cost of uncertainty on economic growth of 0.59 percentage points and a decline in firm investment of 4.7 percent over the next five years. Restoring predictability in global trade is key to the bloc's economic prosperity. Although much will depend on US trade policy, the EU has some trump cards to play. Future EconPol publications will explore their potential.
 
Opinion: “What Does the New US National Security Strategy Mean for Europe?” by Clemens Fuest

The US National Security Strategy, published in December 2025, contains passages on freedom of expression and democratic institutions which EU institutions and governments have considered to be interference in their internal affairs. However, as Clemens Fuest points out, the document contains important economic and political statements that deserve discussion. One above all: Europe's economic weight in the global economy has declined dramatically since 1990. To regain ground, Fuest says, we need more EU, not less. In this respect, however, the document suggests exactly the opposite.
Upcoming Publication & Event
ifo / EconPol Breakfast Discussion: “Paving the Way for Tech Disruption – How to Rethink EU Industrial Policy” fancyrosi studio, Munich | 13 February 2026 09:30 – 11:30
How can Europe unlock the potential of its innovation ecosystem? And how can dual-use technology address national security needs while boosting civilian innovation? In a breakfast discussion hosted by EconPol Europe during the 2026 Munich Security Conference, an expert panel will identify priorities and appropriate tools for a forward-looking European industrial policy in the tech domain.

Key topics include:
  • Industrial policy as a global geopolitical lever: drivers, objectives, and shortcomings
  • European strategies for digital sovereignty: how Europe compares with global peers
  • Digital ecosystems and dual-use innovation: Balancing security and growth
  • European industrial policy in the chip sector: comparative advantages and R&D potential
Panel speakers include Simon Evenett (IMD Business School), Svenja Falk (Accenture), Clemens Fuest (ifo Institute), Daniel Gros (Institute for European Policymaking at Bocconi University), and Fiona Murray (MIT Sloan). Oliver Falck (ifo Institute & LMU) will introduce the discussion. More details about the program can be found on our EconPol’s website.

Please contact EconPol Director
Andrea Balestracci if you wish to participate.

The January 2026 issue of EconPol Forum, released on January 29 and presented during the event, will address these challenges and feature contributions from some of the attending speakers.
People
Each month, CESifo and CES host guest researchers from different parts of the world.
Christoph Boehm, University of Texas, is visiting CES 11 Aug 2025 - 31 Jul 2026

Nitya Pandalai-Nayar, University of Texas, is visiting CES 11 Aug 2025 - 31 Jul 2026

Andreas Irmen, University of Luxembourg, is visiting CES 7 Jan - 27 Feb 2026

Christopher Roth, University of Cologne, is visiting CES 10 - 14 Jan 2026

Juan S. Morales, Lazaridis School of Business and Economics, is visiting CESifo 19 – 31 Jan 2026

Felix König, Carnegie Mellon, Pittsburgh, is visiting CES 2 - 27 Feb 2026

Michael Kogler, German Council of Economic Experts, is visiting CESifo 16 – 20 Feb 2026

Oliver Krebs, ETH Zurich, is visiting CESifo 16 – 20 Feb 2026

Victor Klockmann, University of Würzburg, is visiting CESifo 23 – 27 Feb 2026

Alicia von Schenk, University of Würzburg, is visiting CESifo 23 – 27 Feb 2026

Lucas Bretschger, ETH Zurich, is visiting CESifo 23 – 28 Feb 2026

Nikita Melnikov, Nova School of Business and Economics, is visiting CESifo 1 Mar – 6 Mar 2026

Oliver Ruhnau, University of Cologne, is visiting CESifo 2 – 6 Mar 2026

Camille Landais, LSE - London School of Economics, is visiting CES 2 - 6 Mar 2026

Ulrich J. Wagner, University of Mannheim, is visiting CESifo 8 – 14 Mar 2026

Lavinia Kinne, German Institute for Economic Research (DIW Berlin), is visiting CESifo 8 – 14 Mar 2026

Ning Zhang, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, is visiting CESifo 16 – 20 Mar 2026
Bulletin Board
The Bulletin Board is where CESifo network members can post news and messages regarding conferences, workshops and journals that are of interest to the research community and to all CESifo Newsletter readers. If you have anything you would like to share, please feel free to contact us at services@cesifo.de.
 
2026 AMSE Spring School and Conference in Applied Econometrics Marseille (France) | 28 – 30 April 2026
 
Keynote speakers: Clément de Chaisemartin (Sciences Po) and Daniel Wilhelm (LMU Munich).

Submit your paper by February 15, 2026.
 
KIZ Young Scholar Workshop Political Economy Leipzig | 4 – 5 May 2026
 
Keynote speaker: Sebastian Siegloch (University of Cologne).
Submit your paper by January 31, 2026.
 
10th International Conference: “Understanding Voluntary and Forced Migration – Research and Data Needs” University of Lille, LEM (France) | 18 – 19 May 2026
 
Keynote speakers: Anna Maria Mayda (Georgetown University), Nicola Coniglio (University of Bari), Esther Arenas-Arroyo (Vienna University of Economics and Business), and Abdurrahman Aydemir (Sabanci University).
 
Submit a paper by March 1, 2026.
 
The AI in Finance Conference: “Artificial Intelligence and Finance – Opportunities and Risks” Smith School of Business, University of Maryland (US) | 8 June 2026
 
Program chairs: Tania Babina (University of Maryland) and Ansgar Walther (Oxford University).

Submit your paper by February 1, 2026. Paper selection will be finalized in March 2026.
 
GLEN International Conference: “Environment and Society” Mainau at Lake Constance, Germany | 17 – 19 June 2026

Keynote speakers: Dana Fisher (American University), Stefan Rahmstorf (University of Potsdam).
 
Submit your paper by January 31, 2026.
 
82nd Annual Congress of the International Institute of Public Finance: “Public Finance in Turmoil” Lisbon, Portugal | 24 – 26 August 2026
 
Scientific organizers: António Afonso, José Borges Alves, and João Pereira dos Santos (ISEG Lisbon). The Scientific Committee is chaired by professors Naomi Feldman (Hebrew University of Jerusalem) and Dirk Foremny (University of Barcelona).

Keynotes and panels include: Kimberley Clausing (UCLA), Thiemo Fetzer (Warwick), Helen Miller (IFS), Clemens Fuest (ifo/LMU), and Joaquim Miranda Sarmento (Portuguese Minister of Finance).

Submit your paper by February 15, 2026.
 
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