CESifo Working Papers EconPol Europe Economic Indicators People Events Bulletin Board

Important News We want to share some important news with you: two of our research areas – Macro, Money, and International Finance and Economics of Digitization – will be discontinued. This was not an easy decision. These Areas, along with their associated conferences, have sparked countless inspiring conversations, connections, and ideas over the years. We are deeply grateful to Markus Brunnermeier and Stephen P. Ryan for their fantastic work, and to everyone who contributed – whether by attending, presenting, organizing, or simply spreading the word. We’re excited to explore new formats to keep bringing people together and are announcing the launch of two new activities: Monika Piazzesi (Stanford) will lead a new Area titled Macro with Microdata in 2026, while a new annual conference series focused on the Economics of AI will commence in December 2025. We look forward to having you with us on this next stage of the journey.

Most Read

Hegemonic Globalization Fernando Broner, Alberto Martin, Josefin Meyer, and Christoph Trebesch   Shifts in global power shape trade and integration. This working paper – the most downloaded of the past three months – shows that aligning with hegemons promotes deeper trade. However, transitions to a multipolar world can trigger costly fragmentation for declining hegemons and their closest allies. Using a novel Global Treaties Database covering 77,000 agreements from 1800 to 2020, the authors finds that hegemons drive treaty activity. It also finds that treaty signing serves as a leading indicator of rising bilateral trade. These findings highlight the central role of policy alignment in global economic integration.

Other Top Downloads

The Economic Costs of Ambiguous Laws Tommaso Giommoni, Luigi Guiso, Claudio Michelacci, and Massimo Morelli Evaluating the Effects of the German Debt Brake: A Synthetic Control Approach Maximilian Langer, Joshua Hassib, Lars P. Feld, and Daniel Nientiedt Foreign Aid and Targeted Political Violence Axel Dreher, Jingke Pan, and Christina Schneider Rising Inequality, Declining Mobility: The Evolution of Intergenerational Mobility in Germany Julia Baarck, Moritz Bode, Andreas Peichl → Other CESifo Working Papers → Working Paper Submission Form

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Mixed Signals   The ifo Business Climate Index for Germany rose slightly to 89.0 in August from 88.6 in July, reflecting improved expectations but a weaker current assessment. The recovery remains fragile. In manufacturing, the index declined slightly, though sentiment among capital goods firms improved. Services saw better current conditions but cautious expectations. Trade weakened due to poor performance, while construction slipped slightly, with firms less satisfied now but more optimistic about the future.

Other Indicators

ifo Economic Forecast Autumn 2025: Fiscal Policy May Haul the German Economy Out of the Crisis More Job Cuts Again in Germany (August 2025)

Sentiment in the German Automotive Industry Improves Significantly (August 2025) Back to top

Past Events

Munich Economic Debate: Migration and Democracy - A Challenge for Politics? Chamber of Industry and Commerce for Munich and Upper Bavaria, Munich | 21 July 2025 Fears of uncontrolled migration are putting social cohesion in the EU under strain. In his lecture, Gerald Knaus (European Stability Initiative) examined the numbers closely and exposed the frequent inconsistency between the rhetoric and the actions of anti-immigration parties in government. But what are the viable strategies for safeguarding social cohesion while remaining committed to welcoming those fleeing conflict and poverty? For instance, a more equitable distribution of migrants among EU states, the repatriation of irregular migrants to safe countries, and bilateral partnerships along the lines of the 2016 EU-Turkey deal. Watch the recording of the entire lecture and discussion as well as Gerald Knaus’ interview here (in German).

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CESifo Area Conference on Macro, Money, and International Finance CESifo, Munich | 25 – 26 July 2025 Scientific Organizer: Markus Brunnermeier (Princeton University)

CESifo Area Conference on Economics of Education CESifo, Munich | 5 – 6 September 2025 Scientific Organizers: Eric A. Hanushek (Hoover Institution) and Ludger Woessmann (ifo Institute)

15th ifo Dresden Workshop on Regional Economics ifo, Munich | 9 – 10 September 2025 Scientific organizers: Felix Roesel (TU Braunschweig, ifo Institute & CESifo), Valentin Lindlacher (TU Dresden, ifo Institute & CESifo), Ernst Gloeckner (ifo Dresden), Klara Lehmann (ifo Dresden)

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Upcoming Events

Munich Economic Debate: “The Future Is More Than Just a New Yesterday – New Framework Conditions for German Security Policy” by Florence Gaub Chamber of Industry and Commerce for Munich and Upper Bavaria, Munich | 22 September 2025 18:00 – 19:30 Dr. Florence Gaub, Director of the Research Division at the NATO Defense College, will analyze the new framework conditions of German security policy: as decades-old assumptions no longer hold, Germany is expected to take on a leading role in the international security architecture. She will explain why it is not too late to act decisively – and why the time to set the course is now. Moderator: Judith Wittwer, Süddeutsche Zeitung The lecture will be held in German and will be livestreamed here. We very much look forward to your participation!

CES Munich Lectures in Economics: “Expertise, Artificial Intelligence, and Work of the Future” by David Autor LMU, Munich | 18 November 2025 18:00 – 20:00 Since 1994, the Center for Economic Studies (CES) has annually named the Distinguished CES Fellow – one of the most prestigious awards in economics. In 2025, CES honors Prof. David Autor, Ph.D. as its Distinguished CES Fellow. Will AI complement or replace human skills? The industrial and computer revolutions have shown that the skills required by the labor market have substantially changed as a result of technology shifts. This is likely to happen again in the current circumstances – but in what way? In his lecture, "Expertise, Artificial Intelligence, and Work of the Future”, David Autor will discuss the challenges posed by AI for the labor market. The Munich Lectures are organized by CES in cooperation with CESifo and are sponsored by Munich Re.

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Upcoming Conferences and Workshops

15th ifo Conference on Macroeconomics and Survey Data ifo, Munich | 17 – 18 October 2025 Scientific Organizers: Benjamin Born (Frankfurt School of Finance & Management), Sebastian Link (LMU Munich/ifo Institute), Andreas Peichl (LMU Munich/ifo Institute), Klaus Wohlrabe (ifo Institute), Timo Wollmershäuser (LMU Munich/ifo Institute), and Maik Wolters (University of Kiel) Keynote Speakers: Olivier Coibon (University of Texas, Austin) and Sarah Lein (University of Basel)

CESifo Area Conference on Behavioral Economics CESifo, Munich | 24 – 25 October 2025 Area Directors and Scientific Organizers: Ernst Fehr (University of Zurich) and Klaus Schmidt (LMU Munich) Keynote Speakers: Gilat Levy (London School of Economics) and Ben Enke (Harvard University)

CEMIR Junior Economist Workshop on Migration Research ifo, Munich | 28 – 29 October 2025 Scientific Organizers: Yvonne Giesing, Panu Poutvaara, Lasha Chargaziia, Sascha Schirner Keynote Speaker: Jens Hainmueller (Stanford University)

cemmap Masterclass on Microeconometrics and Policy Analysis ifo, Munich | 13 – 14 November 2025 Scientific Organizer: Daniel Wilhelm (LMU Munich) Instructor of the Masterclass: Richard Blundell (UCL)

Workshop on Skills, Tasks and Technologies in the AI Era - held in conjunction with the 2025 Munich Lectures in Economics CESifo, Munich | 19 – 20 November 2025   Scientific Organizers: David Autor (MIT Economics) and Ludger Woessmann (ifo Institute)

19th Workshop on Political Economy ifo, Dresden | 28 – 29 November 2025   Scientific Organizers: Christian Lessmann (TU Dresden), Gunther Markwardt (BTU Cottbus-Senftenberg), and Niklas Potrafke (ifo Institute) Keynote Speakers: Sascha O. Becker (Warwick University) and Ruben Enikolopov (Barcelona School of Economics) Submit a paper here. Deadline for submissions: 5 October 2025

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CESifo-TransforM Workshop on the Economic and Societal Impacts of AI CESifo, Munich | 5 – 6 December 2025 Scientific Organizer: Oliver Falck (ifo Institute) Keynote Speakers: Tania Babina (University of Maryland) and Christina Gathmann (LISER) Submit a paper here. Deadline for submissions: 30 September 2025 The workshop is organized by CESifo in partnership with TransforM - Munich Center for Transformative Technologies and Societal Change.

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EconPol is now on LinkedIn! Just a few feeks ago, EconPol Europe launched its LinkedIn page, a space to discuss key policy issues and share updates on the latest activities and publications. Follow and join the conversation!

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EconPol Forum 03/2025: A Fast Track to Defense Sovereignty in the EU – How Can It Work? The third 2025 issue of the EconPol Forum was published on July 31. In the Policy Debate of the Hour, authors deal with Europe’s urgent quest for stronger defense sovereignty. From safeguarding Ukraine in case of a US pullback to deepening cooperation within and beyond EU treaties, the issue explores approaches and strategies for security resilience.

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Policy Debate of the Hour

European Defense Sovereignty in the Making: Notable Gains, Enduring Dilemmas German Public Opinion on Defense and the Bundeswehr The Fast Track to EU Defense Sovereignty Passes Through Kiev EU Defense Union: Short-Term Feasibility and Long-Term Coherence A Train to Union: European Common Defense Securing Peace in Europe: A Role for the Weimar Triangle? Beyond Procurement: Europe’s Pursuit of Defense Autonomy The Innovation Dividend of Defense R&D

Economic Policy and its Impact

Use It or Lose It: How Cognitive Skills Change with Age Contrary to common assumptions, this study shows that cognitive skills generally improve beyond age 30 and until the early forties. Declines primarily occur later in life and among those who are less engaged in skill-related activities.

Institutions Across the World

The Transmission of Gender (In-)Equality Through Commercial Links Global companies generally hire more women than non-global firms and can influence gender norms in partner countries. However, when it comes to executive positions, they may contribute to a “race to the bottom”.

Big Data-Based Economic Insights

Investing in Infrastructure but Wisely: Lessons from Germany’s Broadband Expansion Germany’s debt-financed push for infrastructure raises a key question: How can spending be turned into growth? Evidence from the broadband rollout suggests that carefully targeting subsidies is crucial to avoiding unintended costs.

Low-Cost Language Learning: A Boost to Move? Evidence from Duolingo Internet-based language tools are changing migration outcomes. Evidence from the rollout of Duolingo courses shows that migrants across the EU have improved language skills and better employment prospects.

→ Firm-level data is key to answering policy-relevant questions when public data is unavailable. ifo and RWI experts have co-authored a new handbook on best practices for collaboration between firms and researchers, with the goal of accessing anonymized company data for economic research. The handbook was presented at the Verein für Socialpolitik conference in Cologne. More information, including the link to the publication, is available here.

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Policy Report 56: The Role of Maritime Chokepoints for German International Trade The protectionist trend initiated by the US administration has reminded European economies of their dependence on global free trade. But the consequences of the intensifying geopolitical tensions – such as Iran's recent threat to close the Strait of Hormuz or the Red Sea crisis sparked by the Houthi attacks – have exposed Europe's reliance on the very backbone of global trade: maritime transport routes and a handful of critical chokepoints. Using 2023 shipping and trade data, this policy report quantifies for the first time Germany's dependence to each of these chokepoints across products, sectors, and trade partners. Commissioned by the German Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Energy (BMWE), the report is the result of a collaboration between Lisandra Flach (ifo Institute) and Katharina Erhardt (Heinrich Heine University Düsseldorf, DICE).

Policy Brief 76: What Do Economists Think About Tariffs? Insights from the Economic Experts Survey The global economy is grappling with continued uncertainty stemming from the unpredictability of US tariff decisions. According to the Q2-2025 results of the Economic Experts Survey (EES), pessimism prevails among European experts: on average, they expect US import tariffs to be five points higher than their recommended rates by the end of the year. Notably, recommendations diverge significantly across experts from different EU countries, hinting at political difficulties in presenting a united front to the US.

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Upcoming Publications

Policy Brief 77: A Comprehensive Analysis of Corporate Tax Incidence New evidence from Germany shows that corporate taxes primarily affect firm owners, though commercial landowners also bear a significant burden. Using data on over 32 million properties and 17,000 municipal tax changes, the analysis reveals moderate adjustments in wages, rents, and profits, highlighting the broader distributional effects of local business taxes. The Policy Brief will be published in the coming days. Subscribe here to receive a publication alert when the brief is out.

EconPol Forum 04/2025: Governing Social Media – Societal Challenges and Policy Pathways Social media platforms have reshaped our world – connecting people, fueling innovation, and transforming daily life. Yet, their rise has also fueled polarization, fake news, hate speech, and mental health concerns. As the power of platforms grows, so does the urgent need for smarter, balanced regulation. Societal challenges posed by social media platform will be the focus of the next issue of EconPol Forum, out on October 30. Subscribe here to receive your copy.

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Richard Musgrave Visiting Professorship 2026   The Richard Musgrave Visiting Professorship 2026 has been awarded to Nathaniel Hendren by CESifo and the International Institute of Public Finance (IIPF). Nathaniel Hendren is a Professor of Economics at MIT. He is a Founder and Co-Director of Policy Impacts, an organization dedicated to improving the quality of government decision-making and evidence-based policymaking.  He will deliver the 18th CESifo and IIPF Richard Musgrave Lecture on Wednesday, 15 April 2026. Further information is available here.

Guests

Each month, CESifo and CES host guest researchers from different parts of the world.

Christoph Boehm, University of Texas, is visiting CES 11 Aug 2025 – 31 Jul 2026 Nitya Pandalai-Nayar, University of Texas, is visiting CES 11 Aug 2025 - 31 Jul 2026 Amira Bouziri, South Mediterranean University, is visiting CESifo 8 – 15 Sep 2025   Eya Hanefi, South Mediterranean University, is visiting CESifo 8 – 15 Sep 2025   Ciprian Domnisoru, Aalto University School of Business, is visiting CESifo 22 – 27 Sep 2025   Gloria Moroni, Ca’ Foscari University of Venice, is visiting CESifo 6 – 11 Oct 2025   Sébastien Houde, HEC Lausanne, is visiting CESifo 13 – 18 Oct 2025   Oded Galor, Brown University, Providence, is visiting CES 13 - 24 Oct. 2025   Katharina Erhardt, Heinrich Heine University Düsseldorf, is visiting CESifo 20 – 31 Oct 2025   Andreas Tischbirek, Federal Reserve Board, is visiting CESifo 27 Oct – 1 Nov 2025   Björn Öckert, Institute for Evaluation of Labour Market and Education Policy, is visiting CESifo 3 – 8 Nov 2025   Richard Bluhm, University of Stuttgart, is visiting CESifo 3 – 11 Nov 2025   Ian Sue Wing, Boston University, is visiting CESifo 9– 14 Nov 2025   Richard Blundell, University College London, is visiting CESifo 10 – 14 Nov 2025   Erwin Winkler, University of Erlangen-Nürnberg, is visiting CESifo 10 – 14 Nov 2025   Eric A. Hanushek, Stanford University - Hoover Institution, is visiting CESifo 16 – 22 Nov 2025   Heather Sarsons, The University of British Columbia, is visiting CES 24 - 28 Nov 2025   Mar Reguant, Northwestern University, is visiting CESifo 24 – 29 Nov 2025

→ More Information

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The Bulletin Board is where CESifo network members can post news and messages regarding conferences, workshops and journals that are of interest to the research community and to all CESifo Newsletter readers. If you have anything you would like to share, please feel free to contact us at services@cesifo.de.

53rd Annual Meeting of the European Public Choice Society Madrid, Spain | March 23 – 25, 2026   The Complutense University of Madrid is pleased to organize the 53rd Meeting of the European Public Choice Society. The European Public Choice Society promotes scientific research on the economics and politics of public and non-market decision-making, political economy and the economics of institutions. The annual meeting brings together researchers with a shared interest in Public Choice. Submit your paper by November 30. Keynote speakers: Ruben Enikolopov (Pompeu Fabra University), Thomas Fujiwara (Princeton University) More info here.

24th Academy of Innovation, Entrepreneurship, and Knowledge Conference (ACIEK 2026) Málaga, Spain | June 16 – 18, 2026   The conference welcomes both in-person and virtual presentations, ensuring broad accessibility to participants across the globe. As in previous editions, ACIEK offers the opportunity to connect your research with a diverse community of scholars and editors from high-impact journals. Submissions are now open for full papers. The deadline is February 1, 2026. Full submission guidelines and instructions are available on the conference website: ACIEK 2026 – Submission Guidelines

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